Cleveland Indians

Indians Bold Predictions and Probabilities

Our lives and our perspectives are powerfully shaped by expectations. This Indians roster has numerous examples where players “value” is in some manner tainted by expectations. Danny Salazar and Carlos Santana have both been adversely impacted by the weight of expectations as we often to fail to value what is, in contemplation of what could be. Expectations are not only confined to individual careers but individual periods; individual moments.

Alas, in an endeavor to examine expectations this author solicited the dearly held expectations of many insightful Cleveland professional baseball fans in the form of bold predictions. This column will review the authors projections as it relates to these expectations.


Parameters are important and in further discussion we settled on 90 wRC+ as being “near”. With this milestone the projection is not unreasonable; in fact a bounce or “regression to the mean” in home run per fly ball percentage will be a major step in this direction.

Likelihood of wRC+ over 90? 25%. ((Note the prediction would not be particularly bold if the odds were higher than that.))

This is not particularly brash as “fine” is one of those words with a broad spectrum of interpretations. However, it will very likely be better in 2019.

Likelihood of the Indians bullpen being “fine”? 100% in that fine is a broad notion. 30% chance the Indians are a top 10 bullpen.


This would very likely be a rather bleak outcome for the Indians as Hand is the Indians best reliever and one of the 20 best in baseball. However, Edwards is fascinating his strikeout rates suggest late inning upside and his command was impressive this spring.

Likelihood of Jon Edwards outperforming Brad Hand in 2019? 10%.

I think there are four pretty frequent bold predictions in terms of leaps forward; Roberto Perez, Leonys Martin, Shane Bieber, and Jon Edwards. There is a reason for the frequency, past indicators of breakouts.

Likelihood of Leonys Martin producing 4 WAR? 12%.

There are too many to comment. However, these are appropriately bold be it a Santana career high in home runs; a dinged up Lindor posting 7.7 WAR or more or Carrasco beating out multiple teammates and opponents for his first Cy Young.

Never the less; at least one of these should hit and contemplation of each should give fans a glimmer of optimism.

At last, for my middling predictions.

Finally, Jim Pete and I did our second positional preview, regarding the Indians first base situation. Not sure there are many bold predictions for the return of Carlos Santana, but he should solidify, and add improvement in his return home. Here’s our old player, and below it, a new player we’re trying out!

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